Live desk · return to the Moon
We do not name a winner before a successful landing.
Dates are targets, not guarantees. We revise them when official plans change.
Data status verified · 6 Oct 2026 · Next review · 3 Nov 2026LIVE DESK · EDITORIALLY VERIFIED
An editorial selection of changes with direct primary sources. It is not a complete chronology: the manifest and timeline below hold that record.
On Sept. 28, Flight 14 reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. SpaceX shortened the orbital phase after one booster engine and one ship vacuum engine shut down early. Orbit is a prerequisite for the lunar Starship HLS, but the decisive in-orbit propellant transfer has not yet been demonstrated.
In an internal note to staff published by NASA Watch, Jared Isaacman calls a summer 2027 launch of Artemis III the best case and says the mission is roughly 90 days behind schedule. NASA aims to preserve up to two landing opportunities in 2028 but acknowledges that only Artemis IV may fly that year. Official targets on NASA’s website have not changed.
An expert at the Astronaut Center of China said development of the Wangyu moon-landing suit is progressing smoothly, with dozens of key technologies in place. Bed-rest research simulating long-duration weightlessness is also advancing. China keeps its goal of a crewed landing by 2030; no flight test of the new systems has been announced.
Moon Base programme manager Carlos García-Galán told a symposium in Ohio that only Griffin is still expected to launch this year, no earlier than November. Blue Moon Mark 1 Endurance and IM-3 moved to the first part of 2027 and Blue Ghost 2 to later that year. Mark 1 is also a pathfinder for Blue Origin’s crewed lander.
On Aug. 24, technicians at Kennedy began installing the four RS-25 engines in the Artemis III SLS core stage. NASA said booster segment stacking on the mobile launcher was more than halfway complete, and Orion’s crew and service modules had recently been joined.
CNSA says the mission does not meet conditions for this year’s planned launch window following a comprehensive assessment. No new date was announced. This changes the robotic south-pole campaign; it does not by itself move China’s stated crewed-landing goal before 2030.
On Aug. 19, CNSA reported that Chang’e 7 and its Long March 5 launcher had completed work in the technical area and transferred vertically to the Wenchang launch area. A later Aug. 23 notice confirmed that the planned 2026 launch window would not proceed.
NASA’s update tracks Blue Moon MK1, Blue Ghost Mission 2, IM-3 and Griffin-1. Before astronauts arrive, these robotic flights are intended to validate cargo delivery, navigation, power and surface operations near the lunar south pole.
NASA delivered NavCube3-mini for integration into the Altus-1 relay satellite. The future commercial relay network is intended to provide communications and navigation coverage for rovers, landers and crews in the challenging south-pole region.
NASA selected SpaceX for an Artemis III laser-communications demonstration. Two compact terminals are intended to supplement Orion’s existing links and transmit 4K imagery and video from the orbital rendezvous-and-docking tests with lander test vehicles.
NASA has begun stacking Artemis III SLS booster hardware and is completing Orion preparations. The 2027 mission is intended to test Orion docking with commercial-lander test vehicles in Earth orbit before the Artemis IV surface expedition.
NASA named a four-person crew and clarified that Artemis III will test Orion rendezvous and docking with one or both commercial landers in low Earth orbit. The lunar landing is now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028.
China says the Chang’e 7 spacecraft is at Wenchang for pre-launch preparations. Its south-pole survey is designed to combine an orbiter, lander, rover and hopping probe.
The programme is developing the Long March 10, Mengzhou spacecraft, Lanyue lander, Wangyu suit and Tansuo rover. Its plan calls for two launches and a lunar-orbit rendezvous.
RACE CONTROL · PUBLICLY DOCUMENTED CHECKPOINTS
This is not a percentage score or a winner prediction. The board separates completed flights, required next steps and what the public schedule has not yet specified.
EDITORIAL OUTLOOK · CHANCE OF THE NEXT CREWED LANDING
EDITORIAL OUTLOOK · CHANCE OF THE NEXT CREWED LANDING
USA holds the current lead — but the first Artemis landing still depends on an unflown integrated landing system.
Editorial assessment of publicly announced schedules, flown crewed capability and the remaining integrated-flight tests. The percentages are a transparent current judgement, not betting odds or a guarantee.
NASA Artemis program ↗Artemis II · crewed lunar flyby, April 2026
No comparable crewed flight publicly announced
Artemis III · Orion–lander LEO demonstration, target 2027
Integrated crewed flight not publicly announced
HLS in development; Starship first reached orbit (Sept. 2026), no propellant transfer or crewed flight yet
Lanyue in development; no relevant crewed flight yet
Artemis IV · target early 2028
Crewed landing · target before 2030
USA: a roughly three-month Artemis III slip, Starship HLS propellant transfer, Moon Base robotic flights moved into 2027 and integrated surface procedures.
China: first flights of Long March 10, Mengzhou and Lanyue, their joint qualification and any refinement of the “before 2030” goal.
Green means only a completed, publicly documented milestone. Amber is an agency target; gray means the public schedule has not announced the step.
SOURCES: NASA / CMSA ↗MONITORING FRAME
Not every new rocket photo or robotic mission changes the path to a crewed landing. These are the direct decision signals.
Artemis III successfully completes docking with a lander test article.
SpaceX demonstrates propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit.
NASA confirms a specific HLS is ready for Artemis IV.
Artemis IV launches and lands — the only decisive American point.
China announces or flies an integrated Long March 10, Mengzhou and Lanyue mission.
China narrows the date and completes key flight tests.
A Chinese crew lands — the only decisive Chinese point.
MONITORING FRAME
The main order tracks only publicly comparable goals for an independent crewed landing. Other actors matter, but are not a third or fourth contender.
Yes · Artemis, Orion/SLS and commercial HLS form the main American branch.
Yes · Long March 10, Mengzhou and Lanyue form an independent crewed architecture.
Important co-authors of the programme, not separate contenders in the order.
Robotic capability and exploration; India places its own crewed landing around 2040, while Japan takes part through Artemis.
Historical branch and robotic ambitions; no publicly confirmed comparable crewed plan.
Critical suppliers and lander operators, not national competitors.
SYSTEMS ATLAS · WHAT IS WHAT
It is not one machine. Each expedition is a chain of launch vehicle, crew spacecraft, landing system and surface hardware. Each card links directly to the relevant technology.
TAB. I · USA × CHINA
One destination, distinct architectures and different risks. The comparison separates demonstrated capabilities from publicly announced milestones.
01Agency target: Artemis IV, after a 2027 systems demonstration
A coalition-led architecture: NASA provides SLS and Orion, while commercial partners develop the human landing systems. The campaign now puts a crewed integration test before the first return to the surface.
Artemis III · crewed lander rendezvous and docking test in Earth orbit
Key dependency: lander readiness and integrated operations.
02A national programme with a parallel robotic south-pole campaign
China is developing its crew vehicle, lunar lander, heavy launcher, surface suit and rover together. Its plan calls for two launches and a rendezvous in lunar orbit before a surface sortie.
Crewed integrated flight · not publicly scheduled
Key dependency: first flights and full-system qualification. Chang’e 7 is a robotic south-pole mission with an indirect link only.
TABLE II · LUNAR MANIFEST
One working map of what happened, what is an agency target and what remains unannounced. Date nature is always visible — a future target is never presented as a completed flight.
14 September 1959
Luna
Luna 2
The first human-made object to reach the lunar surface; a reference point for the Soviet lunar record.
20 July 1969
Apollo
Saturn V · CSM Columbia · LM Eagle
The first humans step onto the Moon, still the essential precedent for a crewed surface expedition.
22 August 1976
Luna
Luna 24
The final Soviet lunar sample-return mission of the original race; the Russian track is kept here as history, not as an unsupported current forecast.
3 January 2019
Chang’e
Chang’e 4 lander · Yutu-2 rover
The first soft landing on the lunar far side, giving the robotic programme operational experience with relay communications.
16 December 2020
Chang’e
Chang’e 5
China becomes the third country to return lunar material to Earth, an important building block for later polar exploration.
11 December 2022
Artemis
SLS · Orion
The first integrated SLS and Orion flight around the Moon, testing the return heat shield and operations chain before a crew flies.
25 June 2024
Chang’e
Chang’e 6
The first return of samples collected from the Moon’s far side, extending China’s automated sampling and return capability.
April 2026 · completed
Artemis
SLS · Orion
Orion’s first crewed flight completed a nearly 10-day trip around the Moon, directly bridging Artemis I and the landing campaign.
August 2026 · schedule update
Chang’e
Orbiter · lander · rover · hopping probe
CNSA says Chang’e 7 does not meet conditions for the planned 2026 launch window. A new launch date has not been announced; the south-pole survey remains a programme dependency to watch.
28 September 2026 · completed
Artemis · Starship HLS
Super Heavy B21 · Ship 41 (V3)
Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites; SpaceX shortened the flight after engine shutdowns. The lunar Starship HLS still needs to demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer.
No earlier than November 2026 · watch
Moon Base / CLPS
Astrobotic Griffin · Astrolab FLIP
Griffin is intended to deliver more than 500 kilograms of cargo including the FLIP rover, maturing mobility, autonomous operations and logistics for future surface vehicles.
First part of 2027 · watch
Moon Base / CLPS
Blue Origin Blue Moon Mark 1 Endurance
The cargo lander is intended to deliver science equipment to Shackleton Connecting Ridge and prove propulsion and precision landing for Blue Origin’s crewed lander. Its launch has slipped from fall 2026 to the first part of 2027.
First part of 2027 · watch
Moon Base / CLPS
Intuitive Machines IM-3 · Lunar Vertex
The third mission is intended to carry the Lunar Vertex science payload and other international elements. NASA lists it among the first steps toward sustained surface operations; its launch has slipped from late 2026 to the first part of 2027.
2027 · planned
Artemis
SLS · Orion · commercial HLS
The mission is designed to test rendezvous, docking and integrated operations between Orion and one or both commercial landers. It is not yet a lunar landing.
Early 2028 · watch
Artemis
SLS · Orion · Human Landing System
NASA targets the first Artemis surface expedition near the south pole. Its date depends on lander readiness and the preceding integrated test.
Late 2028 · watch
Artemis
SLS · Orion · HLS · Moon Base
NASA lists another surface mission for late 2028 and the start of lunar-base building. This is a target schedule, not a fixed launch date.
Around 2029 · watch
Chang’e / ILRS
Chang’e 8 · international science payloads
CNSA lists a target around 2029. The mission is intended to study resources and in-situ utilization technologies near the south pole, together with Chang’e 7 forming a research-station foundation.
Before 2030 · watch
Crewed lunar programme
Long March 10 · Mengzhou · Lanyue · Wangyu · Tansuo
China publicly maintains a crewed-landing goal before 2030. Its architecture calls for two launches and a crew-lander rendezvous in lunar orbit.
TECHNOLOGY MAP · PUBLIC STATUS
Every system is placed only in a publicly documented state. Unknown dates and qualifications are not filled with estimates.
Earth → lunar orbit
The systems are in development; no comparable crewed flight is publicly announced.
SOURCE ↗Lunar orbit → surface → return
Commercial systems are in development; Starship first reached orbit in September 2026, but no crewed lander flight or propellant transfer has occurred.
SOURCE ↗In development; publicly announced ground tests are not a flight qualification.
SOURCE ↗Crew, mobility, south-pole work
Crewed experience is historical; new suits, vehicles and logistics are being prepared.
SOURCE ↗Robotics are proven; crewed surface elements are in development.
SOURCE ↗VISUAL ATLAS · SYSTEMS IN CONTEXT
Real imagery shows the systems that must work together: spacecraft, lander, launcher and surface mobility.
TAB. II · CONTEXT
The timeline distinguishes impact, robotic soft landing, crewed flyby and crewed landing. Future targets have their own filter so they do not look like completed flights.
The first spacecraft to pass the Moon; it did not land.
First human-made object on the surface by impact, not a soft landing.
A decisive early mapping milestone.
The first successful robotic soft landing on the Moon.
The first artificial satellite of the Moon.
First people at the Moon; no landing occurred.
The first crewed lunar landing and first people on the surface.
The first remotely operated rover on another world.
First robotic return of lunar samples to Earth.
The most recent crewed lunar landing as of this page’s review date.
The final Soviet lunar sample-return mission of the original Space Race.
A modern mapping and science branch that precedes the landers.
China returns a soft lander and rover to the Moon after a long global pause.
First soft landing on the far side of the Moon.
China becomes the third country to return lunar material to Earth.
Orion completes its uncrewed deep-space flight test.
India’s first soft landing at high southern latitude, not at the exact south pole.
The first samples collected from the Moon’s far side arrive on Earth.
The first crewed mission to the Moon since Apollo; it did not land.
Agency target for Orion–lander operations in Earth orbit, not a lunar landing.
NASA target for the first Artemis surface expedition; a target, not a guaranteed date.
Official boundary without a publicly confirmed landing year.
ARTICLES & SYSTEMS
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